On 7 May 2026, the people of Wales went to the polls to elect the seventh Senedd Cymru. For a number of reasons, this was always destined to be a change election in Wales: using a new voting system to return an expanded Senedd of ninety-six members, together with significant changes to the Senedd membership and a likely change of government. In this blog, I focus on the last of these issues – the next Welsh Government – and consider some of the legal and political matters associated with forming a government under the Welsh devolution settlement.

The Election Result

This was a landmark election result in the history of Welsh politics. First, Welsh Labour suffered their worst election performance in Wales in over one hundred years, and have been replaced as the largest party in the Senedd for the first time since the introduction of devolution in 1999. Their leader, Eluned Morgan, also became the first incumbent Head of Government in the UK to lose their seat at an election. Second, the new largest party, Plaid Cymru, received their highest ever share of seats and votes in a Senedd election, and will likely go on to lead a Welsh Government for the first time. Third, this was also the first time where turnout exceeded 50 per cent (51.6 per cent) in a Senedd election; a marked increase from the previous high of 46.6 per cent (2021), and a notable milestone in the history of Welsh elections.

The seat-share in the new, expanded Senedd of 96 members, also looks very different to previous Seneddau: Plaid Cymru (43), Reform UK (34), Welsh Labour (9), Welsh Conservatives (7), Greens (2), Welsh Liberal Democrats (1).

Under this arithmetic, a total of four parties meet the increased threshold of five members to form a Senedd group. Those parties meeting the threshold will receive certain additional administrative funding, as well as allocated time in plenary proceedings and the ability to nominate group members to serve as Chairs of Senedd Committees. Most pertinent to the focus of this blog, however, is the party group that will go forward to form the next Welsh Government.  

The Law on Government Formation

Under Section 3(2)(b) of the Government of Wales Act 2006 (GOWA), the Senedd must meet within fourteen days after the polling date – the first meeting of the seventh Senedd is scheduled for later today, Tuesday 12^th May. The first order of business will be the statutory requirement to elect a new Llywydd (Presiding Officer) and up to two Deputy Presiding Officers. The increase up to two in the latter category is a new arrangement, created by the package of Senedd reform introduced under the Senedd Cymru (Members and Elections) Act 2024. Due to the previous Llywydd, Elin Jones, announcing her decision to step down from the role at the election, after ten years in post, the position will be filled by a new candidate.

As to who will occupy the new roles of Llywydd and first Deputy, there are certain eligibility requirements to consider, set out in Standing Orders. Per SO 6.12(ii), the Llywydd and first Deputy must be from different political groups, and one group must have an executive role. Under the current Senedd arithmetic, this would require the next party of government, likely Plaid Cymru, to nominate a candidate for either role. At time of writing, the Welsh Conservative member, Paul Davies, is the only candidate to have openly declared an interest in the role of Llywydd. This would leave Plaid Cymru with the responsibility to nominate a candidate for first Deputy.

That said, there has been some speculation that Plaid Cymru may seek to avoid nominating a candidate for either role. If true, there is a provision under SO 6.13 that would allow the requirements under SO 6.12(ii) to be disapplied, by resolution of a two-thirds majority in the Senedd. This would still require the Llywydd and first Deputy to be from different political groups, but would remove the requirement for one of those groups to have an executive role. Reaching the two-thirds majority in the more multi-party Senedd, however, will be a difficult task as the main opposition bloc of Reform UK and the Welsh Conservatives hold over a third of the Senedd seats (41 out of 96). Thus, if the speculation proves correct, it will require Plaid Cymru to arrange a complex, multi-party alliance of political partners to satisfy the two-thirds requirement.

When a new Llywydd is installed, proceedings will move to consider the nomination of the new First Minister of Wales. The Senedd has a total of twenty-eight days from polling day (deadline 3 June) to nominate the next First Minister. In previous Seneddau, the leader of the largest party has traditionally been the presumptive nominee. However, there is precedent from 2016 that partially challenges this position – the then leader of Plaid Cymru, Leanne Wood, secured sufficient support from other parties to tie the nomination vote at 29-29 with Welsh Labour’s candidate, Carwyn Jones. The stalemate was only settled when the Welsh Labour and Plaid Cymru agreed a ‘Compact’ Agreement which confirmed Jones as the sole nominee for First Minister.

Where an equality of votes exists between candidates, Standing Order 8.2 provides that a further roll-call vote must take place. If this second vote should fail to break the deadlock within the twenty-eight day period, an extraordinary election may then be called per Section 5 GOWA.

Procedural insights aside, it seems unlikely that such deadlock will arise over the coming days. Since the election, no party has openly challenged Plaid Cymru’s intention to form a minority government, and the party leader, Rhun ap Iorwerth, is currently the only candidate to have declared their intention for nomination as First Minister. Provided that Plaid Cymru can secure a majority – this seems likely – ap Iorwerth will be nominated as First Minister and will then begin the process of forming the next Welsh Government.

Minority Government in Wales

Plaid Cymru’s intention to form a minority government is not an unfamiliar proposition in Wales. Since the introduction of devolution in 1999, no single party has secured an outright majority in the Senedd, and the last three Seneddau, since 2011, have each included long periods of minority government. The difference now, however, is in the margins of the minority following the increased size of the Senedd chamber, the more proportional electoral system, and the expanded multi-party composition. Between 2011 and 2026, the examples of Welsh Labour-led minority government were only one or two seats short of a majority. Following last week’s election result, Plaid Cymru are seven seats short of a majority, so will need to rely on political partners in order to deliver a programme for government.

Within the literature, there are two broad classifications for minority government behaviour: substantive minority governments that work with different political partners to form short-term, shifting majorities over the course of a government, and; formal minority governments that include stable, long-term contracts with one or more political partners. Both have a history of practice in Wales. For example, during the Fourth Assembly (2011-2016), the Welsh Labour Government was one seat short of a majority and was able to rely on a series of one-off, substantive arrangements with both Plaid Cymru and the Welsh Liberal Democrats to pass the annual Budget. More recently, the first three years of the Sixth Senedd (2021-2026) saw the minority Welsh Labour Government enter a formal Co-operation Agreement with Plaid Cymru. This included support for the annual Budget, together with a wider package of agreed policy commitments. While Plaid Cymru remained outside of government, the mechanics of Agreement included a series of liaison committees that met regularly over the course of each financial year, and which included briefings associated with UK government fiscal events. To date, the Co-operation Agreement has been the most formal example of minority government in Wales.

The dynamics of both systems create a trade-off for the government. Formal arrangements offer greater stability and longevity for the government, together with increased control of the legislative process. However, the creation of formal arrangements also increases the requirement for policy concessions to be made by the government to the political partner(s) – weakening the former’s control on the programme for government, while increasing the political capital of the latter. Another factor to consider is the strength of the opposition that will directly affect the dynamics of any minority arrangements. In the Fourth Assembly, a less mobilised opposition allowed substantive arrangements to function relatively easily. Conversely, the increase in opposition mobilisation in the Sixth Senedd posed considerable challenges and short-term instability to those examples of substantive arrangements, particularly in the run up to the Budget vote.

With this in mind, the most important test for a future minority government will come in response to the Budget. Under Section 125 GOWA, the Welsh Government is required to move an annual Budget motion in the Senedd ahead of each new financial year. Per Section 126 GOWA, it may also move subsequent supplementary Budget motions during the course of a financial year. This second category of vote is likely to pose the most immediate challenge, as the incoming government may seek approval for new funding commitments. However, it is the annual Budget vote that carries the greater requirement in law, as well as the higher risk of negative repercussions should it fail.

In the rare event that the Welsh Government is unable pass the annual Budget motion, Section 127 GOWA provides a mechanism for subsequent appropriation without a Budget resolution. This entitles the Welsh Government to access a ‘relevant percentage’ of the Budget authorised in the previous financial year. The relevant percentages are divided into two categories: 95 per cent where a Budget resolution for the financial year is not passed before the end of July; otherwise, 75 per cent of the Budget agreed at the previous financial year. The prospect of the minority Welsh Labour Government being unable to pass the annual Budget motion earlier this year led the Cabinet Secretary for Finance, Mark Drakeford, to offer a sobering warning of the ‘genuinely catastrophic’ financial outcomes that would unfold should Section 127 need to be invoked. In a written response to the Senedd’s Finance Committee, the Llywydd also set out the Senedd Commission’s forecast that its funding would run out in month nine of the next financial year if Section 127 restrictions on funding were applied. In the months ahead, preparations for a final or supplementary Budget will be a key area for analysing the political behaviour of the next Welsh Government.  

Concluding Remarks

It is not an exaggeration to describe last week’s election as a landmark event in the history of devolution in Wales. Over the coming days, a further series of events will play out, leading to the formation of the next Welsh Government. As discussed, the political composition of the seventh Senedd will require the incoming Government to seek political deals with other parties in order to secure a majority, and a series of trade-offs await in dictating the structure of the minority government. While not entirely unfamiliar, the politics of the seventh Senedd poses interesting challenges for the incoming Welsh Government, and a new chapter in the Welsh devolution process.

Gareth Evans is Lecturer in Law at Swansea University

(Suggested citation: G. Evans, ‘The Senedd Election: What are the next steps for government formation in Wales?’, U.K. Const. L. Blog (12th May 2026) (available at https://ukconstitutionallaw.org/))