Polls Show Majority Against Alternative Vote
The Guardian has published an ICM poll on the Alternative Vote that shows a strong lead for the no campaign, with 44% against and 33% in favour of change. Perhaps even more worrying for the yes campaign, of those intending to vote, 58% say they oppose AV. This result is the same as that reported in YouGov’s most recent poll, commissioned by The Sun.
If a candidate can win a seat with as little as 26% of the share of a vote (eg. the constituency of Nairn & Lochaber in 1992), then you can make a strong case for introducing more proportionality into the voting system. Whether AV can achieve this is doubted I’m afraid.
The decline in support for the traditional two parties probably highlights the need for some sort of alternative – assuming parties still matter to us, of course. More worrying though is the fact that turnouts for the last 3 general elections have been sub 70%.
What is often overlooked, however, is the issue of constituency apportionment. Some votes are ‘worth more’ in one constituency eg. Orkney & Shetland, and less in another eg. Isle of Wight. The Parliamentary Voting System and Constituencies Bill 2010-11, which caused much anguish to their Lordships, has received Royal Assent and appears to address this concern at long last. To what extent though will remain to be seen.